Top Ten Global Economic Challenges: An Assessment of Global Risks and Priorities

To learn more about the critical issues and challenges facing the world today, explore 11 Global Debates , a collections of essays celebrating 10 years of research by the Global Economy and Development program at Brookings.

The beginning of 2007 offers a conflicting picture of the global economy for those trying to discern trends, challenges and opportunities. Concerns about energy security and climate sustainability are converging-finally bringing consensus in sight on the need for action in the United States, but prospects for breaking the global stalemate are still years away. While some developing countries are succeeding in bringing hundreds of millions out of poverty, too many are still mired in a doom spiral of conflict, poverty, and disease- despite the entry of new philanthropists, advocates and global corporations into the field of development. China’s projected 9.6 percent growth rate is sending ripples to the farthest reaches of the planet-creating opportunities but also significant risks. The United States remains in the “goldilocks” zone, but this is premised on continued borrowing from abroad at historically unprecedented rates while many Americans fret about widening inequality and narrowing opportunity. While the United States concentrates on civil war in the Middle East, most leaders in the region are preoccupied with putting an outsized cohort of young people to work and on the road to becoming productive citizens.

What are the most important challenges we face and what are the potential solutions? In Washington, D.C., where short-term political wrangling too often crowds out the harder and more important long-term challenges, this inaugural publication of Brookings Global Economy and Development seeks to put the spotlight squarely back on the most consequential issues demanding action. It seeks to size these issues, offering policymakers and leaders a concise and clear view of the critical challenges as viewed by leading experts in the field. From economic exclusion of youth in the Middle East to a pragmatic approach to energy and environmental security, this “top 10” is intended to mark core issues and shed light on opportunities and challenges with a broader and longer-term perspective.

When we gather a year from now, we would expect many of these challenges to remain front and central, but we would hope this publication would elevate their visibility and help sustain a dialogue on their resolution.

1. Energy and Environmental Security

Warwick McKibbin and Peter Wilcoxen

Energy and environmental security has emerged as the primary issue on the global agenda for 2007. Consensus has recently been forged on the potential for long-term economic, national security and societal damage from insecure energy supplies and environmental catastrophe, as well as the intense need for technological advances that can provide low-polluting and secure energy sources. Yet despite growing global momentum, there is still little agreement on the best set of actions required to reduce global dependency on fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. Confounding the international policy challenge is the disproportionate impact of high oil prices and global warming across nations, insulating some countries from immediate concern while forcing others to press for more rapid change.

2. Conflict and Poverty

Lael Brainard, Derek Chollet, Jane Nelson, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, and Susan Rice

In a world where boundaries and borders have blurred, and where seemingly distant threats can metastasize into immediate problems, the fight against global poverty has become a fight for global security. American policymakers, who traditionally have viewed security threats as involving bullets and bombs, are increasingly focused on the link between poverty and conflict: the Pentagon’s 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review focuses on fighting the “long war,” declaring that the U.S. military has a humanitarian role in “alleviating suffering, ? [helping] prevent disorder from spiraling into wider conflict or crisis.”

3. Competing in a New Era of Globalization

Lael Brainard, Robert Litan, and Wing Thye Woo

Is the new episode of globalization just another wave or a seismic shift? While individual elements feel familiar, the combined contours are unprecedented in scale, speed, and scope.

4. Global Imbalances

Barry Bosworth, Lael Brainard, Peter Blair Henry, Warwick McKibbin, Kenneth Rogoff, And Wing Thye Woo

Today’s interconnected world is in uncharted territory: the world’s sole hegemonic power, the United States, nurses an addiction to foreign capital, while up-and-coming powers such as China and oil exporters sustain surpluses of increasing magnitudes. Some worry that the world is at a tipping point, where only a dramatic shift in economic policy can alter the looming trajectory. Others see underlying structural factors perpetuating gross imbalances for a sustained period.

5. Rise of New Powers

Chong-En Bai, Erik Berglöf, Barry Bosworth, David de Ferranti, Clifford Gaddy, Xiao Geng, Homi Kharas, Santiago Levy, Leonardo Martinez-Diaz, Urjit Patel, Shang-Jin Wei, Wing Thye Woo

The rise of “emerging powers”-a group that usually includes the so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), but which sometimes is applied more broadly to include South Africa, Mexico and others-is reshaping the global economy and, more gradually, international politics. Growing much faster than the rest of the world, these economies are changing the structure of international production and trade, the nature and direction of capital flows, and the patterns of natural resource consumption. At the same time, the growth of these countries is beginning to shift the global distribution of power forcing the great powers to come to terms with the reality that they will need to share management of international rules and systems in the coming decades.

6. Economic Exclusion in the Middle East

Navtej Dhillon, Caroline Moser, and Tarik Yousef

The Middle East has before it what could be one of the greatest demographic gifts in modern history-a potential economic windfall arising from a young and economically active workforce. Today, young people aged 15- to 24- years old account for 22 percent of the region’s total population, the highest regional average worldwide. With the right mix of policies, this demographic opportunity could be tapped to spur economic growth and promote stability.

7. Global Corporations, Global Impact

David Caprara and Jane Nelson

The private sector is becoming a significant player-indeed some might say the dominant player-in shaping the global economic and development agenda. Multinational corporations with operations that span the globe, and in some cases capacities and networks that match those of governments, have a particularly important role to play in helping to spread the opportunities and mitigating some of the risks of globalization.

8. Global Health Crises

Maria-Luisa Escobar, David de Ferranti, Jacques Van Der Gaag, Amanda Glassman, Charles Griffin, and Michael Kremer

From responding to the threat of pandemic flu to efforts to control the spread of HIV/AIDS, the world has begun to realize that global health issues are relevant for any citizen, regardless of nationality, residence or status. Despite improvements in the world’s collective ability to battle disease with advances in medicine and technology, global health needs remain unmet, making the entire world vulnerable to health crises. In particular, the poor continue to suffer disproportionately from inadequate health services, exacerbating their struggle out of poverty.

9. Global Governance Stalemate

Colin Bradford, Ralph Bryant, and Johannes Linn

Today’s global challenges-nuclear proliferation, the deadlock of global trade negotiations, the threat of pandemic flu, and the fight against global poverty-cannot be solved by yesterday’s international institutions. To resolve the world’s most pressing problems, which touch all corners of the globe, we must adapt our global governance approaches to be more representative and thus more effective by encouraging and enabling the key affected countries to take an active role in generating solutions.

10. Global Poverty: New Actors, New Approaches

Lael Brainard, Raj Desai, David de Ferranti, Carol Graham, Homi Kharas, Santiago Levy, Caroline Moser, Joe O’Keefe

The challenge of global poverty is more urgent than ever: over half the world’s population-nearly 3 billion people-lives on less than $2 per day; nearly 30,000 children die each day-about 11 million per year -because they’re too poor to survive. With such a toll, addressing poverty in new and more effective ways must be a priority for the global policy agenda. Fortunately, a variety of new actors are bringing new perspectives, new approaches and new energy to the challenge.

Chapter 5. Economic Issues

Despite signs that some countries are recovering from the Great Recession of 2008-2009, economic times remain tough for many around the world. In most of the nations surveyed, people are dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country and downbeat about their national economy. The few exceptions to this pattern include publics in China, Brazil and India. Although opinion is divided as to whether economic conditions will improve over the coming year, most publics continue to blame their own government, rather than banks or the United States, for their country’s current economic problems.

In nearly all nations, people describe rising prices and a lack of job opportunities as very big problems. Only in China, Israel and Germany do publics characterize inflation and job shortages as less pressing issues. When asked who is to blame for people not having jobs, majorities in most countries fault outside forces rather than the unemployed themselves.

Yet, despite economic concerns, public support for economic globalization appears strong, with majorities worldwide describing the expansion of international trade and business ties as a good thing.

Most Unhappy With Country Direction

Majorities in 18 of 23 surveyed countries are unhappy with their country’s direction. Dissatisfaction is most intense in Pakistan, where roughly nine-in-ten (92%) say they are displeased with the way things are going. Large majorities elsewhere also express discontent, including in Lebanon (87%), Ukraine (87%), the Palestinian territories (85%), Spain (83%) and Kenya (81%).

In the past year, the most dramatic increase in dissatisfaction has occurred in Poland, where 66% are now unhappy with the country’s direction, compared with 47% a year ago. Dissatisfaction has also intensified in several other countries, including the U.S., where discontent has swelled from 62% in 2010 to 73% today. Pakistanis and Spaniards, too, are less happy than last year. In fact, in Spain, dissatisfaction with the country’s direction is at its highest level (83%) since 2002.

Only in China (85%), Egypt (65%), Brazil (52%) and India (51%) do more than half express satisfaction with the way things are going in their country. The Chinese public has been consistently upbeat since 2005; Egyptians have not.

A year ago, just 28% of Egyptians were happy with the direction their country was headed. The 37-point jump in satisfaction compared with last year is most likely linked to renewed optimism, following the popular uprising that unseated Hosni Mubarak in February. (For a more detailed analysis of Egyptians’ views about their country’s direction, see “Egyptians Embrace Revolt Leaders, Religious Parties and Military, As Well,” released April 25, 2011.)

Economic Recovery Still Distant

In 18 of 23 nations, less than half describe the economic situation in their country as good. In the U.S., France, Britain, Lebanon and Pakistan fewer than one-in-five offer a positive assessment of the national economy. In Japan, Spain, Lithuania, and Ukraine, one-in-ten or fewer are upbeat about the economy.

Only in a handful of countries do majorities say the economic situation in their country is good. The Chinese public is the most positive, with nearly nine-in-ten (88%) describing the domestic economy as good. In Germany, two-thirds echo this view, while over half in India (56%), Israel (54%) and Brazil (54%) favorably assess the economic situation in their country. Turks, meanwhile, are evenly split on the issue: 49% say the national economy is good, compared with 48% who say it is bad.

Following the global downturn, public assessments of the economy have rebounded to a greater degree in Germany than in the U.S. or other Western European countries. The number of Germans who are upbeat about the economic situation in their country rose 16 percentage points between 2009 and 2010 and another 23 points in the past year. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Britain, France and Spain, confidence in the economy has yet to return to pre-2008 levels, and has even declined slightly in the U.S. and Britain compared with a year ago.

Besides Germany, economic assessments have also grown more positive in several other nations, including Israel (+22 percentage points from 2009), the Palestinian territories (+18 points from 2009) and Turkey (+15 points from 2010).

Egyptians, too, while still far more pessimistic than they were four years earlier, are more upbeat than they were in 2010, with 34% describing the economic situation in their country as good, compared with 20% the previous year. However, Egyptians’ improved opinion of the economy may reflect hopes for the future, more than actual changes on the ground.

Poland has witnessed the largest decline in economic confidence among the nations surveyed. A year ago, 53% of Poles described the economic situation in their country as good; today, just 26% hold this view. Double-digit declines have also taken place since last year in Kenya (-17 percentage points) and Indonesia (-12 points).

Uncertain Future

Across the globe, opinion varies as to whether economic conditions will improve in the near term. In 10 of 23 countries, majorities or pluralities believe the next 12 months will usher in better economic conditions. However, in the remaining nations, prevailing views are less optimistic, with most anticipating economic circumstances will either remain the same or worsen.

Publics in the emerging economies of China, Brazil and India are the most upbeat about economic change. In China, more than eight-in-ten (84%) believe the economic situation in their country will improve over the next 12 months. Since 2008, strong majorities of Chinese have consistently predicted better economic times ahead.

Almost as many Brazilians (79%) as Chinese anticipate economic improvements over the next 12 months. A substantial majority of Indians (60%) share this sense of optimism.

In Egypt, a majority (56%) is confident that the national economy will improve in the coming year. This is a huge shift in the Egyptian public’s outlook – in 2010, just 25% expressed confidence that better economic conditions would emerge in the near term.

Pluralities in Mexico (48%), Kenya (45%), Turkey (44%), the U.S. (42%), the Palestinian territories (39%) and Jordan (34%) also predict improved economic circumstances in the coming year. Turkish attitudes have brightened considerably – a year ago, just a quarter foresaw better economic times. By contrast, confidence in the economy’s future has fallen 14 points among Americans, dropping from 56% in spring 2010.

The prevailing view among Indonesians (47%), Russians (46%), Poles (45%), Israelis (44%), Lithuanians (43%) and Germans (42%) is that economic conditions will remain the same over the next 12 months. Elsewhere, pluralities anticipate that the economic situation in their country will actually worsen in the coming year. Some of the most pessimistic publics are found in Pakistan (60% worsen), France (52%) and Japan (52%).

Blame for Economic Troubles

Among those who describe economic conditions in their country as bad, most believe their own government is at fault – continuing a pattern seen in 2010. Finger-pointing at banks and other financial institutions is most prevalent in Western Europe, as it was last year. In general, more people continue to find fault with themselves, rather than the U.S., when it comes to bad economic times at home.

In countries where majorities say the economic situation is poor, the predominant view is that the national government is to blame. In places as far-ranging as Lebanon, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine and Russia, three-quarters or more who think economic conditions are bad point to government as either the primary or secondary reason. Roughly two-thirds or more in Britain, Jordan, France and Spain also fault their government.

The idea that banks and other financial institutions are to blame for struggling economies is especially popular among Europeans who report bad economic times at home. Majorities in Britain (75%), Spain (75%), Germany (68%), France (65%) and Lithuania (60%) fault banks and related institutions for economic problems. In Spain, the percentage holding banks responsible has increased 9 percentage points from 2010, while it has held steady in Britain and slipped in France and Germany (down 5 and 9 points, respectively).

In general, relatively few people hold the U.S. responsible for the economic misfortunes of their country. Only in the Palestinian territories do as many as half of those describing their economy as poor point the finger at the U.S. (51%). Smaller numbers blame the U.S. in Jordan (39%), Turkey (32%) and Pakistan (29%), while just one-in-five or fewer in the other surveyed nations say the U.S. is culpable for their country’s economic troubles. The percentage blaming the U.S. is actually down in 6 of 15 nations, for which there are comparable data from 2010. In only one country, Turkey, do substantially more people point to the U.S. as the cause of their country’s economic problems (32% today vs. 24% in 2010).

Roughly half or more in Brazil (58%), Indonesia (49%), Kenya (49%), India (48%), and Lebanon (45%) blame themselves for the bad economic situation in their country. Fewer elsewhere share this view, but overall, more tend to fault themselves rather than the U.S. In Kenya, compared with last year, there has been a 10-point increase in the number of people holding themselves responsible for their country’s economic troubles. In Germany the percentage has risen 8 percentage points and in Russia 7 points.

Many Worried About Prices and Jobs

Rising prices and a lack of job opportunities are significant concerns in nearly all the countries surveyed. In most cases, worries about inflation and jobs track relatively closely.

In 19 0f 22 nations, most people say rising prices are a very big problem, including overwhelming majorities in Pakistan (97%), Kenya (93%), Lebanon (89%), Lithuania (86%), the Palestinian territories (83%) and Indonesia (81%). Even in some countries where publics are generally content, large numbers worry about inflation. In India and Brazil, for example, roughly eight-in-ten (83% and 79%, respectively) describe rising prices as a very big problem.

Inflation worries are closely coupled with concerns about unemployment. In the same countries where majorities see rising prices as a pressing issue, half or more also say a lack of job opportunities is a very big problem. In several Western nations, however, worries about job shortages significantly trump apprehensions about price increases.

By wide margins, more in Spain, the U.S. and Britain say a lack of jobs is a very big problem, than say the same about rising prices. More among the French also think jobs, rather than prices, are a very big concern, although by a smaller margin (10 points).

Only a few publics appear relatively unworried about inflation and unemployment. In Germany about a third describe rising prices (32%) and a lack of jobs (33%) as very big problems.

In China, somewhat more than a third (37%) say unemployment is a major concern, compared with nearly half (49%) who are anxious about price increases, while in Israel slightly less than half see prices (47%) or a shortage of jobs (43%) as huge problems.

When asked separately why unemployed people in their country are without jobs, publics in the surveyed nations hesitate to place the blame on the jobless themselves. Across regions, less than half say it is the fault of unemployed people that they are without work. People in Israel (47%), Indonesia (46%) and India (45%) place the greatest responsibility on individuals for being unemployed. In about half of the surveyed countries, a quarter or less place the blame on the jobless themselves, including in Western countries such as Germany (25%), Britain, (22%) and the U.S. (18%).

Across the globe, far more blame forces outside the control of the unemployed for their jobless status. This view is most widespread in Spain (91%), France (88%), Kenya (80%), the U.S. (77%), the Palestinian territories (76%) and Lithuania (75%).

International Trade Still Favored

Despite widespread feelings of economic malaise, and specific worries about inflation and unemployment, publics in the nations surveyed see increased international trade and business ties as a good thing. However, not everywhere do people feel as strongly about the benefits of such ties.

Majorities in all parts of the globe say growing international trade and business ties is a good thing for their country. Roughly nine-in-ten or more share this view in Lebanon (97%), Spain (96%), Israel (95%), Germany (95%), Kenya (91%), Lithuania (91%) and China (89%). Public enthusiasm for trade is especially notable in Lebanon, Spain and Kenya – all countries where large majorities are unhappy with both their country’s direction and the domestic economy. In the other nations surveyed, no less than two-thirds endorse expanded trade and business ties with other countries.

While overall views of international trade are positive across regions, the intensity of support varies by country. In Spain (58%), Kenya (58%) and Pakistan (56%) majorities say trade is very good for their country. Roughly half in Lebanon (50%), Turkey (48%), India (48%) and Lithuania (47%) concur. By contrast, just 14% of Brazilians and 18% of Americans think increased trade and business ties with other nations are very good for their country.

In China, just a quarter believe international trade is very good for their country, up slightly from 2010. The percentage describing trade as very good jumped 25 percentage points in Spain between 2010 and 2011.

Chapter 3. Economic Issues

In nearly all nations surveyed, people are unhappy with the direction of their country, disgruntled about the state of their nation’s economy and divided about the economic future. Most fault their government for the bad economic times and think it is doing a poor job coping with current troubles. There is, however, widespread support in most leading economies for more financial regulation. Europeans are divided over the impact of European economic integration. Yet faith in capitalism and globalization remains strong.

National Discontent Widespread

People around the world are largely dissatisfied with the way things are going in their country. But this bleak mood showed some signs of easing over the last year, with levels of dissatisfaction decreasing in ten countries, staying about the same in eight and increasing in only three.

In 19 of 22 countries surveyed majorities are unhappy with their nation’s direction. At least three-quarters of Lebanese (86%), Pakistanis (84%), Kenyans (82%), Mexicans (79%), Japanese (76%) and Spanish (76%) are discontented. Roughly six-in-ten Americans also are dissatisfied.

As might be expected, some of this discontent tracks national economic fortunes. Spanish dissatisfaction has risen 31 percentage points since spring 2007, before the economic crisis hit. Additionally, there has been a 22-point rise in unhappiness in Jordan and an 18-point increase in Egypt over that period. In that three-year time frame, Spain’s growth turned sharply negative and the Egyptian and Jordanian economies slowed dramatically. Similarly, strong majorities of the Japanese have been unhappy with their nation’s direction throughout the decade as their economy has struggled.

But dissatisfaction may reflect other concerns. For example, in France dissatisfaction is somewhat lower now than before the recession, even though the economy is underperforming.

Only the Chinese are clearly satisfied with the way things are going in their country; 87% express a positive opinion. Chinese contentment is unchanged from last year, but satisfaction has improved dramatically – 39 percentage points – since the first Pew Global Attitudes survey in 2002.

Economy Recovers But Not Enough

Economists report that the world is recovering from the worst downturn since the Great Depression. But strong majorities in most nations still give their country’s current economic situation a thumbs down.

In most nations, the portion of the public that thinks their economy is doing well is only a fraction of what it was before the recession hit. In 2007, in the United States, 50% of the public thought the economy was doing well. In 2010, only 24% thinks so. Similarly, in France (13%) and Japan (12%), the portion of the public saying their economy is good is less than half the number who felt that way just three years ago.

And almost everywhere people remain fairly glum about economic conditions. Only about one-in-eight people in France, Spain, Japan and Lebanon believe economic conditions are good. And about one-in-five British, Egyptians, Pakistanis and South Koreans concur.

Nevertheless, in nearly half the countries surveyed people gave higher marks to their national economy in 2010 than in 2009. And the number of people saying their economy was good grew sharply in some countries, by 24 percentage points in Poland and Kenya and 16 points in Germany. Only in four nations did the assessment of the national economy go down, most notably in India, by 16 points.

The Chinese are the most positive about their domestic economic situation, by far; about nine-in-ten Chinese say times are good. By comparison, in Brazil, where ratings of the national economy are the second-highest, 62% offer this positive assessment.

Unconvinced About the Future

Despite some improvement in their assessment of their current economic situation, publics remain unconvinced about the next 12 months. In most parts of the world, there has been almost no uptick in economic optimism in the last year. The exceptions are Kenya, where confidence is up 31 percentage points, Poland, where it is up 15 points, and Nigeria, where it is up 12 points.

The most hopeful about economic conditions improving over the next year are Chinese, Nigerians and Brazilians, at least three-quarters of whom are upbeat. And one-in-three Brazilians and Nigerians think their economy will improve a lot.

Pluralities in Britain, Germany and Spain also think economic conditions will get better. France is the lone exception among Western Europeans, where a plurality of the population actually expects the economy to worsen. This general European optimism is particularly notable because the survey was conducted in the last two weeks in April as the high profile public debate over the implications of the Greek economic crisis was building.

Yet, worldwide, majorities or pluralities in only 11 of 22 nations expect conditions to improve in the short run. The least optimistic are the Japanese and the Pakistanis; half of Pakistanis actually think their economy will worsen in the next 12 months. Pessimism is particularly pronounced in the Middle East as well, where about half of Lebanese, 38% of Egyptians and 35% of Jordanians foresee a bleak economic future.

Blame and Responsibility

Most people blame their own government for their current economic problems, although the Europeans are most critical of the financial sector. Despite reason to believe that the recent economic crisis emanated from the United States, people in many parts of the world are more likely to hold themselves responsible than they are to point the finger at Uncle Sam.

In most of the countries surveyed in Asia, Africa and Latin America overwhelming majorities of those who think their economy is bad say their government is responsible. About nine-in-ten Indonesians, Kenyans, Nigerians, South Koreans, Pakistanis, Mexicans and Lebanese name the government as the principal or secondary culprit for their recent economic misfortunes.

In contrast, Europeans strongly blame banks and other financial institutions for their troubles, with Germans and British the most likely to blame those institutions.

In the wake of the financial crisis that triggered the global recession, relatively few in most of these countries blame the U.S. for the downturn. People in Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, Lebanon and Nigeria, among others, are more likely to say the responsibility for their current economic problems lies with themselves and their fellow countrymen rather than with the United States.

Governments’ Poor Job

Whoever is accountable, half or more of the population in 16 of 22 countries surveyed thinks their government is doing a poor job dealing with the economy. This includes more than two-thirds of the people in Japan (84%), Korea (72%), Egypt (72%), Lebanon (71%), Spain (69%) and Argentina (68%). But only half of Americans (50%) express such dissatisfaction. And Americans are more likely to say their government is doing a good job than people in 14 of the 21 other nations polled.

Satisfaction with government’s management of the economy tracks a positive assessment of the current economy and high hopes for the future. The Chinese, Brazilians and Indians are all among the most upbeat about economic conditions, the most optimistic about the next 12 months and most likely to praise their public officials’ handling of the economy.

People in most major advanced economies would like their governments to do more, at least when it comes to regulating the financial sector. This is particularly the case in Western Europe, where overwhelming majorities – 91% in Germany, 85% in Britain, 78% in France and 72% in Spain – think it would be a good idea for the government to more strictly regulate the way large financial companies, such as banks, do business. A smaller portion of Americans (62%) agree. However, the Asians surveyed are not so sure more regulation is in order. Barely half of South Koreans (52%) and only a third of Japanese (34%) think tighter strictures are a good idea.

A Europe Divided

The economic crisis has affected attitudes in Europe, where Europeans are of two minds: They are supportive of the main institutions of a united Europe and skeptical about European economic integration.

European attitudes toward the EU remain largely positive. Strong majorities of Poles (81%), Spanish (77%), French (64%) and Germans (62%) and a plurality of the British (49%) see the EU in a favorable light, sentiment that is largely unchanged from 2009. And overall approval is stable even in France, where a quarter of the public thinks the European Union is the principal or secondary cause of France’s current economic problems.

And the financial market turbulence recently afflicting the euro has not undermined public support for the single European currency. Only about a third of French (34%), Germans (32%) and Spanish (30%) would like to return to their original national currencies.

But Europeans disagree over providing financial assistance to other EU members that face major financial problems (interviews were conducted prior to the May 9 EU decision to provide financial assistance to Greece). The British (61%) and Germans (56%) oppose such aid, while the French (53%) support it. As might be expected, those who view the EU favorably in all three nations overwhelmingly back assistance.

The bailout is clearly a partisan issue in Britain, less so in Germany and not nearly as politically divisive in France. A majority of British who identify themselves as on the left of the political spectrum support providing financial assistance to fellow EU countries in distress. Only a third of British conservatives agree. And in both Britain and Germany, it is the lukewarm backing for aid by moderates that undermines overall public support for such action.

However, with respect to Greece, the initial recipient of aid from other European Union governments, only in Germany is anti-bailout sentiment accompanied by a preponderance of negative views of that debt-strapped nation. A majority of Germans (52%) have an unfavorable view of Greece, while majorities of French (65%) and British (60%) and half the Spanish (50%) still hold favorable views.

More broadly, despite generally positive support for the European Union, nearly two-thirds of the French (63%) and more than half the British (57%) think their economy has been weakened by European integration. Germans are evenly divided on the issue. A bare majority of Spanish say their economy has been strengthened. Only the Poles (68%) credit a united Europe with strengthening their economy.

Moreover, negative views about economic integration have grown over the years in Western Europe, by 23 percentage points in Spain, 19 points in France and 19 points in Britain since 1991. And, especially in Britain, sentiment on this issue divides along ideological lines. A slim majority (52%) of people on the left of the British political spectrum think European economic integration has strengthened their country, while only 28% of centrists and 33% of those on the right agree.

Markets and Globalization

Contrary to widespread fears that the global recession would undermine public support for free markets and globalization, backing remains strong. Majorities in 19 of the 22 nations surveyed think people are better off in a free market economy, even though some people are rich and some people are poor. The strongest support is in China (84%) and Nigeria (82%), where eight-in-ten people back capitalism. Only in Japan (55%) does a majority disagree that most people are better off in free markets. Overall, support for a market-based economy is up in nine nations and down in seven, with the largest improvement in Nigeria (16 percentage points) and the greatest erosion of support in Kenya (12 points).

Overwhelming majorities in most countries say growing world trade is good for their country. The weakest such backing is in Egypt and the U.S., where only about two-thirds of the public favors economic globalization. But support for trade among Americans of all political persuasions has increased since 2008. And, contrary to the widely held view that Republicans are free traders and Democrats are protectionists, 75% of self-identified Democrats say trade is good for the U.S., up four percentage points from 2009, compared with only 61% of Republicans and 63% of independents, whose support remained unchanged.

With trade held in a favorable light by a large portion of the global public, the intensity of such feelings may be a better indicator of sentiment. More than six-in-ten Pakistanis (63%), half of Turks and almost as many Indians (47%), Kenyans (46%) and Lebanese (46%) say trade is very good for their country. But Americans (17%) and Japanese (16%) are far less passionate.

In one sign of the adverse impact of the global recession on China’s exports and thus on people’s jobs, only one-in-five Chinese now think trade is very good for China, down from 38% in 2007, before the downturn in world trade.

Which Is the Leading Economic Power?

In the global marketplace, majorities or pluralities in 14 of 22 nations think the U.S. is the world’s leading economic power. This view is especially common among South Koreans (77%), Turks (69%), Kenyans (61%), and Indians (60%). The U.S. is named least often as the world’s leading economic power in Germany (18%). The greatest falloff over the last year has been in Jordan, where the percentage naming the U.S. declined from 49% to 30%, and in Japan where it dropped from 58% to 40%.

China is clearly on the rise. Majorities or pluralities in eight nations say China is the economic leader. In 2009, people in only two countries saw China in that role. Today, roughly half of Germans (51%), Jordanians (50%), Japanese (50%) and French (47%) and 44% of the British assign the top spot to China. Even in the U.S., about equal proportions of the public accord economic superpower status to America (38%) and China (41%).

Since 2009, in 13 of the 21 countries for which trends are available, the portion of the public that views China as the world’s leading economic power has grown, including increases of 29 percentage points in Japan, 23 points in Germany and 21 points in Jordan. China scored significant gains in all the nations surveyed in the European Union and in the Middle East, the two regions where people are most likely to accord China the leading economic role.

But opinions in Asia vary. The perception that China’s is the world’s economic leader is highest in Japan (50%). However, only one-in-ten Indians (11%), one-in-seven South Koreans (15%) and one-in-five Pakistanis (21%) and Indonesians (20%) agree that China is the world’s leading economic power. The Chinese themselves are actually slightly less likely to place their country in the top position today (36%) than they were a year ago (41%).

The European Union is almost nowhere seen as an equal to the U.S. or China, with perceptions of the EU’s leading role mostly in single digits. The lone exception is in India, which has an equally low regard for both China and the EU. In both the U.S. and China, only 6% see the EU as the global economic leader. European publics’ faith in the EU as an economic superpower has also been undermined. The portion of the German public that sees the Brussels-based institution as the world’s top economic power has dropped from 36% to 19% in just the last year.